Weaponising trader psychology part 2

In February, I wrote about being early into an ongoing big-picture long play, with subsequent posts referencing the long side's continuing opportunities.

More recently I wrote about a specific group of longs with "diamond hands" holding through shifts in the fundamentals. (the post also discusses their purchase price).

Longs may have held through a recent price "puke", but how many subsequently closed their positions for reasonable profits versus those who continued to hold despite the change in the underlying fundamentals? As I discovered, not many!

And knowing this, a significant participant got to work on a multi-day strategy to take the other side of the long players.

Ever since the change in fundamentals, $AUD could not successfully move beyond the Feb 9 ⚓VWAP; and just a little below this level, shorts commenced building their impenetrable selling wall.

Shown is a screenshot excerpt from my pre-trading planning for Mar 4, highlighting the selling zone (pink box).

As per the Mar 10 screenshot, the longs (white box) are now offside for a second time. Once is tough, but twice? Key. What do you think the mental state of those longs is? And with the answer to that question, let's unveil how trader psychology was weaponised.

As referenced in part one (live footage from the trading session), last Thursday was FX Futures roll.

I was more than comfortable trading the long side on that day but had planned on being flat into the large buy zone, expecting longs who had endured two severe draws to exit at breakeven.

However, as price approached that zone, it was only at that moment that I pieced the entire play together. Sure, I knew about the large long and short inventory zones and the current role of Feb 9 ⚓VWAP, but there was something much bigger going on, and it revolved around trader psychology.

Let me ask this, have you ever been in a trade that has gone against you, but rather than liquidate, you instead decide to hold on, and if the price moves back to breakeven, you promise yourself you'll exit?

I admit that over my trading journey, I've done this. But I'm not unique, which means many reading this have also done this. However, the story doesn't end here.

When the market is approaching your breakeven price, what happens? Depending on how the market moves, you might decide to hang on for a little bit longer. No longer massively offside, it's only a slight risk now to wait for a potential profit. Sound familiar?

As price moved up towards that large buy zone, I remember saying to the live trading room masterclass attendees, "make the buyers feel safe". And so the market moved at a pace that showed no signs of failing to continue higher. Thanks in part to the FX futures roll, the price moved into a steep ascent, the perfect lure for holding on to once-offside positions or enticing longs who did exit to re-enter so as not to miss out.

The following trading session started with a decoy to commence the pay-off for the significant short participant. Refer to part one for details of the decoy.

Having traded the long side the previous day, we switched to the short side for some epic short moves. Not only did these sell off's finally clean out a decent proportion of longs, but they also brought new shorts to the game.

Now here is an important point. Think of the Olympics, at any one time, just how many different games are taking place simultaneously? In addition to the game I'm focusing on, other observations I was aware of included a keen interest in transacting at monthly VWAP and front-running the buy-side of Mar 6 ⚓VWAP, as highlighted in the chart below.

In the chart, you'll also see where the dramatic sell-off commences on Mar 12. Remember, we have all those greedy longs made to feel safe, plus new FOMO longs.

Over the next few days, apart from a brief reprieve late Friday, the longs are again offside, repeatedly teased with almost a return to break-even, while between monthly VWAP and the large buy zone is most of the traded volume traded between Friday and Tuesday.

Numerous existing longs hold throughout this period. They are comforted in the observation; when the market drops suddenly, it quickly retraces after penetrating the first deviation of monthly VWAP (not shown as it lines up with Mar 6 ⚓VWAP).

Shorts see price fail to reach the monthly VWAP first deviation (not shown as it lines up with the top of the buy zone), prompting them to enter.

New longs see failures to penetrate the first lower deviation to monthly VWAP plus a lack of acceptance/volume traded at the lows as a signal the market only wants to transact at higher levels, enticing them to initiate.

What about our huge seller then?

Note the first line highlighted from my Wednesday, Mar 17 planning excerpt.

The question I raised was important, but what was the answer? Although it didn't "click" right away, the answer is in the second highlight.

If the market accepts lower prices, longs will finally exit, creating a domino effect with more and more longs exiting. Their exiting order flow will likely drive prices lower.

The critical point here is "acceptance". If the market finally agrees to lower prices, sufficient volume (on the buy-side) will assist the large seller exit the remainder of their position (I'll assume they scaled out the entire move down given their size).

The sharpest drop in price in almost a week and the market finally washes out most long traders, leaving just a majority of short inventory resting between monthly VWAP and it's first deviation.

What fascinates me is the timing of the washout pre FOMC. Post FOMC markets globally shift to risk on, and everything from gold to equities to major currencies trends firmly upwards.

A question for you as you approach the Asian session Thursday morning knowing the following:

• Due to liquidations during the prior session, there is an absence of recent longs.

• Many traders will have observed the market failures to move higher. Current short inventory will likely incorporate this level into their risk management, not aware of the reason why those failures occurred (the dominant seller anchoring price to the downside).

• The dominant seller has exited the market having completed their play.

Do you look to develop a hypothesis on the long or the short side? (Hint: markets move in the direction that hurts the biggest group of players)

Of course, you'll want to combine further data to generate a robust trade; however, I trust I've provided you with a glimpse of why trading is so appealing. Every day I spend trading $AUD reveals new information. Like a detective, I take both old and new observations, discount the outdated, and go to work formulating what the market is in the process of doing or about to do.