The glass is half full trade. The uncrowded-trade advantage.

As many of you know, I've actively traded the short side in 6A (AUDUSD futures) having recognised a macro shift in January.

Last week, while addressing the National Press Club, RBA's Governor Philip Lowe outlined the case for rates remaining at current levels until 2023 (assuming certain economic conditions remain).

The following day, it was clear to me (it was masked by professional tactics) the market was valuing $AUD higher, bucking the recent trend. I made an early start on Friday's preparation work, writing down the following:

You'll notice I refer to the trade as "uncrowded". I knew if I'm early to detect the change, I could benefit from being a first adopter before more traders catch on to the opportunity.

The move to the upside (a shift away from the macro theme previously in play) commenced Friday afternoon, moving from lows to highs about 70 basis points.

Capturing part of the move up Friday primed me for capturing further movement to the upside.
The advantages of being an "early adopter" in a significant shift in sentiment are the trades' straightforward nature.

Monday Asian session was mostly a grind. However, notice as soon as the US equity markets opened, 6A behaved like the “poster child” in some guru's course named "Master Trading in Just Three Easy Steps" (while on your lunch break).
Even with numerous "less-than-perfect" entries and exits, it still paid, and that's because of the "first adopter" advantage.

So that brings us today's Asian session. Here's what I knew going into the session (includes two additional hypothesis points added while live trading):

And how did the trading go? I measure my performance by determining if I have made the most of the opportunities presented. Not all price movement is an opportunity; however, it has been the case so far today.

Shown below are the executions. How much heat did I take on any single entry? (Note, I scale into positions as they go my way to minimise risk.)

When you have the first adopter advantage, the odds are exceptional. Uncrowded trades are at the heart of my trading. It's not enough, however, to have a profitable idea. When and where do you enter, take some profits, add size, repeat, get flat etc?

Taking advantage of the opportunity requires a trading process. My process developed from a broad set of essential trading skills and experience. To remain current, it adapts with the ever-changing markets.

To get paid, you learn to do what the market is telling you. My process aligns with what the market is saying.