COT?
It stands for Commitments Of Traders report.
In this example, you'll see the Commitments Of Traders for AUD/USD futures plotted.
What can you see?
Do you like the idea of trading intraday, but you're worried fast moves will catch you out?
Are you concerned you'll suffer wild swings in profits but also losses as a consequence?
These 3 transferrable skills enable you to trade rapid price movement....
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It's fantastic news for mature traders because you're in your prime. Changes that completely unlock 3 thinking types - but not before your 50's.
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A driving force to succeed at trading was wanting to avoid all that.
But the further I delved into trading, guess what? Due to market politics, you must also play the game when trading. So I'm going to show you. And the easiest way to do it? Yep, real trading examples:
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Can you relate?
Rasons why traders feel overwhelmed:
Not knowing if you'll lose money.
Fear and anxiety about future outcomes.
Lack of time.
Pressure of making decisions.
Feeling all alone and unsupported.
Youir 5 steps to overcome these…
5 steps to solve the above
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You have edge when:
you take uncrowded trades
that exploit price inefficiencies.
Markets are democratic. The majority determines fair price.
But sometimes price trades at a discount or premium to its fair price.
This can be due to…
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a trade that produces profits over a meaningful sample size is said to have edge.
Edge isn't discussed openly (firm traders sign NDA's) leading to broad misunderstanding. To use a card game analogy - you don't show your opponents your hand.
The benefit of intraday trading is arriving at meaningful sample sizes quickly. It's also a skill and experience fast track. It's why successful longer-term traders built their skills through intraday trading.
What edge isn't - when you have a range of trades that produce an overall positive outcome. No way of knowing what contributed to edge across different trades.
What's most important:
psychology?
money management?
or trading edge?*
*a trade that produces profits over meaningful sample size is said to have edge.
Listen:
If you haven't got edge
the best psychology and money management won't save you from losing money.
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What set up the first payout?
Sure the u̶n̶d̶e̶r̶ ̶N̶D̶A̶ trade paid
But what was the catalyst?
Here's your play:
The early move-up was a carbon copy of the prior day.
When trading a continuation of that move rewarded you.
But now
There's keen interest in a rinse-and-repeat long trade due to recency bias.
Yet there is a structural difference...
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Know the feeling?
When you're overwhelmed by trading?
It's a mental grip that depletes your confidence.
And calls for a way to reset.
Even though it's written to a Millennial
Obstacles are generation agnostic
So this note to a mentoree will work for you too…
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The yellow line in the chart below calculates weekly volume-weighted average price (WVWAP). The slope of WVWAP is trending up, as we would expect, given the massive upside gain this week. Generally, price trading above WVWAP as a signal to maintain long positions.
See how price price has broken below WVWAP, only to reverse back to the upside, as shown by the blue ellipses? What's this signalling to traders?
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As a serious trader your first step is to chunk down until you have a framework that brings order to your trading.
Think playing field and sports.
Within the field of play is when you can trade. Out-of-bounds is when you don't trade.
But it's not only about being in the field of play.
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