The Confidence Algorithm. Evidence to Outsmart Trading Illusions

Your mind has an innate tendency to find patterns, even where none exist.

This tendency is tactically exploited—from slot machine design to sophisticated algorithms used by market makers and HFTs in the markets you trade.

You counter it effectively by using evidence signals.

Armed with an arsenal of evidence signals ("if this, then that"), the more you align, the stronger your case for XYZ becomes.

One or two signals might just be random, but ten to twelve signals are statistically significant. Using this approach counters any pattern, thought, or gut feeling you may have considered by the sheer weight of evidence against it.

Not only does this improve your ability to identify trades that don’t lose, but it’s also a huge confidence booster.

Once you experience winning using evidence, you build the conviction to act decisively whenever you see several points of evidence align.

Further, you're likely aware of the importance of non-uniform trade sizing as key to consistency. Here, you let the quantity of evidence signals determine the size, so you don’t have to figure it out as you go.

The pressure to be right.

Look, everyone wants to be right. Right?

In trading, that urge to "be right" can work against you, especially when it’s all about predicting market direction. When the market moves the other way, it creates friction—conflicting with that fundamental desire to be correct.

Here’s the shift: you can try to be right about market direction or make the right decision based on the evidence. You can’t argue with evidence—not when you have 10-12 signals aligned.

Being right becomes straightforward—there’s only one answer: the evidence.

This approach eliminates the psychological friction of constantly trying to be right. Now, your focus is simply on the evidence, allowing you to make decisions with clarity and confidence.

Experience it in action

This isn’t just theory—this is real-time trading, where every decision is grounded in evidence.

Click the screenshot below and experience the difference firsthand.