The Potent Cocktail of Concepts That Propel Traders from Slump to Success

The following concepts create a potent cocktail of high-octane fuel to radically propel a trader from the development phase into successful trader status.

As we dive in consider how many of these points are counterintuitive. It will help you deepen your understanding of the game.
Let's go!

Participation trumps economic data releases and outlook.

February 16 FXSTREET published my report highlighting despite a bearish outpouring of sentiment and negative fundamentals, the Nasdaq was full-steam ahead to the upside because 'side-lined' buying fuel waiting for deployment was significant.

Since then, the economic outlook has deteriorated, and we've experienced a bank crisis.

But look at the chart below. Nasdaq up plus 20% 2023! But now look at the participation (COT report bottom chart). Can you see the net positions were short start of 2023 and remain so as of today?

Counterintuitive, isn't it?

You have the majority sitting on one side of the boat yet the boat topples the other way.

To make sense of it - remember the market punishes the majority and rewards the minority. Always.

Reward to risk is arbitrary and therefore a useless metric.

Fact:

Professional traders don't think in terms of '4:1 reward-to-risk etc. - it's simplistic garbage.

Never was it a metric used in the professional firm I traded.

Instead truly understanding the trading game means you evaluate in terms of expected value - a dynamic measure that shifts as the market moves.

Expected value, a must-have trading skill

It's analogous to sports and poker.
If you've watched any of my previous live trading footage you'll most likely recall my references to 'expansion' as a cue to exit a trade.

When expansion occurs, the expected value is no longer positive. And you see me exit/take a portion of funds off the table.

But as a dynamic measure that moves with the market, expectancy also applies to your entry and the movement in value during the trade. It's always a factor.

Intraday trading offers the most edge. Period

To gain further insight refer to my previous report Where You Find The Largest Trading Edges.

But note intraday trading can't be scaled to the size trading of Soros and Buffett. And the same goes for the 100 million dollar plus portfolio traders.

So you remove many champion traders from the game when you compete at the intraday level. This massively improves your chances of winning.

But as a competitive game, as soon as you step back to larger time horizons, you immediately increase the pool of competitors.

100% daily profit opportunity

You only have the opportunity to be profitable every-single-day when you trade intraday (day trade).

The only reason for day traders not to achieve a profitable day is self-inflicted. They may have made costly mistakes, including trading when the game exceeds their skill level.

And while it's not realistic to think you won't make mistakes, it doesn't change the fact that the opportunity is there.

Value underpins everything

I elaborate on the concept of value in this webinar.
Additionally when you've got a handle on relative value - you sit down at your screens, and the market is not a mystery.

To illustrate:
Imagine the experienced rock climber. Standing at the base of the climb - one look up, and it's clear what route to take.

As a trader there's no need to predict the direction. But once it makes its move, you know the route it can take - giving you a massive headstart on your competition

By acting early you can enter into a trade when the positive expectancy is at its greatest.

The playbook - not all movement is opportunity

Sticking with rock climbing:

The route you first mapped out might not be the fastest route. But it's going to be the route you can manage.

But fail to map out a route that matches your skills and you suddenly find yourself trapped in a precarious position.

Many traders dive into the deep end only to find themselves struggling to navigate market conditions beyond their abilities, ultimately suffocating under the pressure.

Making it worse is not having intimate knowledge of conditions you can trade, leading to swinging the bat at everything that moves.

You give back all your profits from your winning trades and slide backwards because the market moves in many ways you can't navigate and adapt to. Agree?

A playbook is a catalogue of trades you can make. The challenge to the developing trader is it takes years to grow a rich playbook of trades that can take advantage of opportunities on a daily basis.

Without a playbook you act impulsively without the skills to harvest opportunities - even if you can foresee the move ahead of time. The result? You rack up losses.

Frustrated, you might have asked the question.
"How is this taking so long?" Correct?

The lack of awareness around the need for a playbook stems from not truly understanding "not all movement is opportunity".

That's why when you work at a trading firm or with a legitimate mentor - access to their playbook takes years off the development phase.

As one of the crowd I have those feelings and thoughts too

I recently illuminated seeing how others are trading to take advantage of their behavioural patterns.

Now watch what that look like in real-life.
Plus you'll see all of the concepts covered as applied in live trading.

But first:
Have you ever imagined how it would feel to lift the veil on trading and instantly cut through all the mystery and uncertainty surrounding it?

Try this:
As you watch the footage, imagine you're tuning in and replicating the same trade.

And ask yourself:

Do you feel safe making a live trade rather than anxious and fearful?
Do you feel confident in your trading decisions rather than second-guessing yourself?
Do you feel more in control of your emotions and impulses compared to when you are trading alone?
Do you feel more focused and engaged with the market rather than feeling overwhelmed or distracted?
Do you feel like you have a clear and concise trading strategy rather than feeling lost or unsure about your approach?

Experience everything above in real-life!