Your Key to Smarter Trades Lies in Evidence Multiples. Case Study

 

Is it possible?

Deep-rooted biases, unconscious habits, expectations, and survival mechanisms are blocking your trading success.

Or maybe:

You're just in desperate need of a rock-solid means to refine your trade choice?

Either or...

You'll see your solution in a second.
But what about the challenge most people don't know about?

Take the trade below:

You see the buy entry and you see the corresponding profits taken. Easy right?

 

But looking at the time axis the whole thing took about 10 minutes. That's only a fraction of the day.

So what does trading over 90 minutes look like?

You can see what it looks like below.

Many trade executions. Right?

 

It's fair to say:

You're mentally fresh making the first trade. Correct? 

But imagine you're on the 6th or even the 11th of the many trades above. It's possible you're not at your mental best? Agree?

So how can you fill the gaps when you're not at your best?

In the same way you address the first two problems.

Apply evidence multiples. You'll see how in a minute. First?

What exactly is evidence?

Evidence refers to proof to support your claim.

It's statistically validated using extensive research which - in the case of the first trade - goes back over 1000's of trading days. 

This hardcore strength is crucial in making informed decisions based on accurate conclusions. Make sense?

Imagine a courtroom scene.

Exhibit A, exhibit B, exhibit C etc.

Multiple pieces of evidence. The more evidence, the more likely a conviction. Right? In the same way, you build your case to trade stacking the evidence. 

Ask yourself:

How many pieces of evidence do you apply to your current trading?

And how does that compare to the first trade which is taken on the basis of 10 evidence points?

What are the 10 you ask?

You can see the list below. However, many go much deeper than you can see in the chart above. 

Still, it gives you insight into how you solve the three problems mentioned by incorporating many points of evidence. 

Points of evidence

* Where you see undisclosed- edges are not made public for competitive reasons. 

  1. The trade is a playbook 101 (from the catalogue of positive expectancy strategies)

  2. It's also a playbook premium undisclosed

  3. Buyers are stepping in on multiple occasions at higher and higher levels

  4. VWAP is anchoring price to the upside.

  5. Price has moved off a known hedging level. 

  6. Price has moved off a key relative value level.

  7. Directional skew to the upside on undisclosed calculation.

  8. Directional skew simultaneously to the upside on the undisclosed calculation. 

  9. Recent large seller offside and caught in the once bitten twice shy trap - their order exit flow to fuel prices higher.

  10. Sufficient outside participation (not dominated by inside business) 

But how can you track all those points in real time?

Answer - you don't.

The power of game planning - when you devise your hypotheses before you make a trade - is you identify most of the evidence before you start trading. Make sense?

So in real-time, you're adding extra points to strengthen your case prior to timing your execution (timing execution is a topic for another article). 

Imagine having a massive weight of evidence working for you when you trade. It shifts the execution phase of your trading to one that's systematic. Making it far easier for you to implement a robust method every day even when you're not operating at your best. Make sense?

Winning by being unique

If you're not using a multiple-evidence approach to trading - imagine how many other traders are in the same boat. Gazillions! Right? So...

Trading is competitive, agree? 

And if you use evidence multiples while gazillions of other traders don't - then you solve the three problems outlined above and arm yourself with a giant competitive advantage. And that's how you give yourself the breakthrough in trading you're after. 

 
Adam Fiske