Bullet points. Hard facts only on where traders struggle and steps to fix

a trade that produces profits over a meaningful sample size is said to have edge.

 

  • Edge isn't discussed openly (firm traders sign NDA's) leading to broad misunderstanding. To use a card game analogy - you don't show your opponents your hand.

 

  • The benefit of intraday trading is arriving at meaningful sample sizes quickly. It's also a skill and experience fast track. It's why successful longer-term traders built their skills through intraday trading.

 

  • What edge isn't - when you have a range of trades that produce an overall positive outcome. No way of knowing what contributed to edge across different trades.

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Adam Fiske
What books and courses don't cover - the way trading's done

What set up the first payout?

Sure the u̶n̶d̶e̶r̶ ̶N̶D̶A̶ trade paid

But what was the catalyst?

Here's your play:

The early move-up was a carbon copy of the prior day.

When trading a continuation of that move rewarded you.

But now

There's keen interest in a rinse-and-repeat long trade due to recency bias.

Yet there is a structural difference...

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Adam Fiske
Seeing Cognitive Errors to Discover Unique Trades. Recency Bias Trade In AUD Today

The yellow line in the chart below calculates weekly volume-weighted average price (WVWAP). The slope of WVWAP is trending up, as we would expect, given the massive upside gain this week. Generally, price trading above WVWAP as a signal to maintain long positions.

See how price price has broken below WVWAP, only to reverse back to the upside, as shown by the blue ellipses? What's this signalling to traders?

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Adam Fiske